FK Tobol Kostanay vs Yelimay Semey: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 27Kick-off on September 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Ortalyq stadıon, Kostanay
The Footlab model makes FK Tobol Kostanay the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Yelimay Semey. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FK Tobol Kostanay vs Yelimay Semey?
A very open match: only 20 Elo points separate FK Tobol Kostanay (1,608) and Yelimay Semey (1,628).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FK Tobol Kostanay have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Yelimay Semey have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Irtysh(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FK Partizan(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | FK Partizan(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ordabasy(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Panevėžys(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kaspiy(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Irtysh(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Zhenys(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Kaisar(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Ordabasy(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 FK Tobol Kostanay win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Yelimay Semey win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Yelimay Semey 1-0 FK Tobol Kostanay | Premier League |
| Jul 5, 2025 | Yelimay Semey 2-3 FK Tobol Kostanay | Premier League |
| Mar 30, 2025 | FK Tobol Kostanay 1-1 Yelimay Semey | Premier League |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Yelimay Semey 2-1 FK Tobol Kostanay | Premier League |
| Mar 6, 2024 | FK Tobol Kostanay 4-2 Yelimay Semey | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Yelimay Semey vs FK Tobol Kostanay on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FK Tobol Kostanay score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Yelimay Semey score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Tobol Kostanay | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Yelimay Semey | 1.4 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FK Tobol Kostanay sit 9th in Premier League (25 points from 21 matches) and Yelimay Semey sit 6th (32 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 31 | 26 | 32 |
| 9 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 23 | 28 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FK Tobol Kostanay vs Yelimay Semey?
- The Footlab model makes FK Tobol Kostanay the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Yelimay Semey.
- Where and when is FK Tobol Kostanay vs Yelimay Semey played?
- FK Tobol Kostanay vs Yelimay Semey is played on September 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Ortalyq stadıon, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.