FC Astana vs Kairat Almaty: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 27Kick-off on September 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Astana Arena, Astana
The Footlab model makes Kairat Almaty the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for FC Astana. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Astana vs Kairat Almaty?
A very open match: only 89 Elo points separate FC Astana (1,698) and Kairat Almaty (1,787).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Astana have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Kairat Almaty have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kyzyl-Zhar(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Okzhetpes(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ulytau(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Altay(home) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Dinamo Tirana(home) | 1-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Anderlecht(home) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ulytau(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Levski Sofia(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Omonia Nicosia(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 FC Astana win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Kairat Almaty win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Kairat Almaty 4-0 FC Astana | Premier League |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Kairat Almaty 1-1 FC Astana | Premier League |
| Mar 2, 2025 | FC Astana 1-1 Kairat Almaty | Premier League |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Kairat Almaty 0-1 FC Astana | Premier League |
| Jun 29, 2024 | FC Astana 1-3 Kairat Almaty | Premier League |
| Aug 27, 2023 | Kairat Almaty 1-0 FC Astana | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Kairat Almaty vs FC Astana on Apr 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Astana score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Kairat Almaty score 1.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Astana | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Kairat Almaty | 1.9 | 0.9 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Astana sit 3rd in Premier League (39 points from 21 matches) and Kairat Almaty sit 2nd (48 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 42 | 15 | 48 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Astana vs Kairat Almaty?
- The Footlab model makes Kairat Almaty the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for FC Astana.
- Where and when is FC Astana vs Kairat Almaty played?
- FC Astana vs Kairat Almaty is played on September 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Astana Arena, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.