Folgore Caratese vs Alcione: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone AGirone A - 4Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio XXV Aprile, Carate Brianza
The Footlab model makes Folgore Caratese the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Alcione. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Folgore Caratese vs Alcione?
A very open match: only 91 Elo points separate Folgore Caratese (1,858) and Alcione (1,767).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Folgore Caratese have 5 wins, 8 draws and 2 defeats; Alcione have 2, 7 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Giana Erminio(away) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Sassuolo(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Arezzo(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Vado(away) | 0-3 | Serie D - Championship Round |
| May 13, 2026 | Treviso(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Championship Round |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Renate(home) | 3-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Novara(home) | 0-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Mantova(away) | 2-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Torino(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Lumezzane(away) | 0-0 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Folgore Caratese win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Alcione win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2023 | Folgore Caratese 0-2 Alcione | Serie D - Girone B |
| Oct 9, 2022 | Alcione 1-2 Folgore Caratese | Serie D - Girone B |
| Aug 28, 2022 | Alcione 4-1 Folgore Caratese | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Sep 12, 2021 | Folgore Caratese 0-0 Alcione | Coppa Italia Serie D |
Last archived meeting: Folgore Caratese vs Alcione on Feb 12, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Folgore Caratese score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Alcione score 0.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Folgore Caratese | 1.5 | 1.0 | 4 | 10/15 | 5/15 |
| Alcione | 0.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alcione | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Folgore Caratese vs Alcione?
- The Footlab model makes Folgore Caratese the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Alcione.
- Where and when is Folgore Caratese vs Alcione played?
- Folgore Caratese vs Alcione is played on September 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio XXV Aprile, in the Serie C - Girone A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.