Folgore Caratese vs Desenzano Calvina: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone AGirone A - 8Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio XXV Aprile, Carate Brianza
The Footlab model makes Desenzano Calvina the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Folgore Caratese. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Folgore Caratese vs Desenzano Calvina?
A very open match: only 91 Elo points separate Folgore Caratese (1,826) and Desenzano Calvina (1,916).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Folgore Caratese have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Desenzano Calvina have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Dolomiti Bellunesi(home) | 1-2 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Giana Erminio(away) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Sassuolo(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Arezzo(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Vado(away) | 0-3 | Serie D - Championship Round |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | PRO Vercelli(away) | 1-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lecco(away) | 0-0 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| May 31, 2026 | Scafatese(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Championship Round |
| May 24, 2026 | Scafatese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Championship Round |
| May 17, 2026 | Grosseto(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Championship Round |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Folgore Caratese win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Desenzano Calvina win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2025 | Folgore Caratese 0-1 Desenzano Calvina | Serie D - Girone B |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Desenzano Calvina 3-0 Folgore Caratese | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Folgore Caratese 0-2 Desenzano Calvina | Serie D - Girone B |
| Nov 26, 2023 | Desenzano Calvina 0-0 Folgore Caratese | Serie D - Girone B |
| Mar 5, 2023 | Desenzano Calvina 1-1 Folgore Caratese | Serie D - Girone B |
| Oct 30, 2022 | Folgore Caratese 3-0 Desenzano Calvina | Serie D - Girone B |
Last archived meeting: Folgore Caratese vs Desenzano Calvina on Mar 9, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Folgore Caratese score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Desenzano Calvina score 1.1 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Folgore Caratese | 1.5 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| Desenzano Calvina | 1.1 | 0.5 | 8 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Folgore Caratese sit 14th in Serie C - Girone A (0 points from 1 matches) and Desenzano Calvina sit 10th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Desenzano Calvina | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Folgore Caratese | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Folgore Caratese vs Desenzano Calvina?
- The Footlab model makes Desenzano Calvina the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Folgore Caratese.
- Where and when is Folgore Caratese vs Desenzano Calvina played?
- Folgore Caratese vs Desenzano Calvina is played on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio XXV Aprile, in the Serie C - Girone A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.