Foligno Calcio vs Fossombrone: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 30Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Enzo Blasone, Foligno
The Footlab model makes Foligno Calcio the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Fossombrone. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Foligno Calcio vs Fossombrone?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Foligno Calcio (1,667) and Fossombrone (1,672).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Foligno Calcio have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Fossombrone have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Cannara(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Seravezza(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 19, 2026 | San Donato Tavarnelle(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Prato(home) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cesena(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Recanatese(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Castelfidardo Calcio(home) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Atletico Ascoli(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Ancona(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
How many goals should we expect?
Foligno Calcio score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Fossombrone score 0.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foligno Calcio | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Fossombrone | 0.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Fossombrone | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 28 | 34 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Foligno Calcio vs Fossombrone?
- The Footlab model makes Foligno Calcio the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Fossombrone.
- Where and when is Foligno Calcio vs Fossombrone played?
- Foligno Calcio vs Fossombrone is played on April 4, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Enzo Blasone, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.