Fossombrone vs Notaresco: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 31Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Fossombrone, Fossombrone
The Footlab AI model makes Notaresco the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Fossombrone. The most likely score is 1-1. If Notaresco wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,451 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fossombrone vs Notaresco?
A very open match: only 75 Elo points separate Fossombrone (1,654) and Notaresco (1,728).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Fossombrone vs Notaresco
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Fossombrone
Not enough data to predict the Fossombrone lineup.
Notaresco
5-3-2- 10P. Banegas
- 17A. Mancini
- 9Mateus Ribeiro
- 7L. Marchionni
- 4L. Bianciardi
- 6I. Speranza
- 33M. Gallo
- 24R. Di Stefano
- 5G. Colombatti
- 13J. Di Saverio
- 1K. Shiba
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 06:59 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fossombrone have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Notaresco have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Termoli Calcio(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Ancona(away) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Atletico Ascoli(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Vigor Senigallia(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lanciano FC(home) | 2-4 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Recanatese(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Montecchio Gallo(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Pietralunga(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Foligno Calcio(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Santegidiese(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Fossombrone win, 3 draws, 2 Notaresco wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Notaresco 1-1 Fossombrone | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Fossombrone 0-1 Notaresco | Serie D - Girone F |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Notaresco 1-0 Fossombrone | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Fossombrone 1-1 Notaresco | Serie D - Girone F |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Fossombrone 2-0 Notaresco | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Notaresco 0-0 Fossombrone | Serie D - Girone F |
Last archived meeting: Notaresco vs Fossombrone on Mar 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fossombrone score 0.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Notaresco score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fossombrone | 0.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Notaresco | 1.3 | 1.2 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fossombrone sit 10th in Serie D - Girone F (10 points from 7 matches) and Notaresco sit 6th (11 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Notaresco | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| 10 | Fossombrone | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 10 |
A question about Fossombrone vs Notaresco?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fossombrone vs Notaresco?
- The Footlab AI model makes Notaresco the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Fossombrone.
- Where and when is Fossombrone vs Notaresco played?
- Fossombrone vs Notaresco is played on April 11, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Fossombrone, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 11, 2027AnconavsPietralunga
- Apr 11, 2027TeramovsFoligno Calcio
- Apr 11, 2027Sporting TrestinavsAngelana
- Apr 11, 2027Real GiulianovavsL'Aquila
- Apr 11, 2027Termoli CalciovsMontecchio Gallo
- Apr 11, 2027Vigor SenigalliavsMaceratese
- Apr 11, 2027Atletico AscolivsRecanatese
- Apr 11, 2027Lanciano FCvsSantegidiese