Where and when is Fossombrone vs Notaresco played?

Fossombrone vs Notaresco is played on April 11, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Fossombrone, in the Serie D - Girone F.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Fossombrone vs Notaresco: prediction and stats

Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 31Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Fossombrone, Fossombrone

Fossombrone

Notaresco

The Footlab model makes Notaresco the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 30% for Fossombrone. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Fossombrone vs Notaresco?

A very open match: only 66 Elo points separate Fossombrone (1,672) and Notaresco (1,739).

Fossombrone win30 %

Draw31 %

Notaresco win39 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fossombrone have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Notaresco have 5, 5 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Fossombrone
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 1, 2026	Cesena(away)	0-3	Friendlies Clubs
May 3, 2026	Recanatese(away)	0-2	Serie D - Girone F
Apr 26, 2026	Castelfidardo Calcio(home)	3-1	Serie D - Girone F
Apr 19, 2026	Atletico Ascoli(away)	1-1	Serie D - Girone F
Apr 12, 2026	Ancona(home)	1-2	Serie D - Girone F

Notaresco
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 17, 2026	Teramo(away)	1-3	Serie D - Girone F
May 10, 2026	Ancona(away)	3-1	Serie D - Girone F
May 3, 2026	Ancona(away)	1-1	Serie D - Girone F
Apr 26, 2026	Victor San Marino(home)	1-2	Serie D - Girone F
Apr 19, 2026	Termoli Calcio(away)	2-1	Serie D - Girone F

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Fossombrone win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Notaresco win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 1, 2026	Notaresco 1-1 Fossombrone	Serie D - Girone F
Oct 26, 2025	Fossombrone 0-1 Notaresco	Serie D - Girone F
Mar 2, 2025	Notaresco 1-0 Fossombrone	Serie D - Girone F
Oct 27, 2024	Fossombrone 1-1 Notaresco	Serie D - Girone F
Mar 3, 2024	Fossombrone 2-0 Notaresco	Serie D - Girone F
Oct 28, 2023	Notaresco 0-0 Fossombrone	Serie D - Girone F

Last archived meeting: Notaresco vs Fossombrone on Mar 1, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Fossombrone score 0.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Notaresco score 1.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Fossombrone	0.7	1.3	4	6/15	7/15
Notaresco	1.4	1.0	5	9/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Fossombrone sit 9th in Serie D - Girone F (44 points from 34 matches) and Notaresco sit 5th (51 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	Notaresco	34	13	12	9	43	31	51
9	Fossombrone	34	11	11	12	28	34	44

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Fossombrone vs Notaresco?: The Footlab model makes Notaresco the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 30% for Fossombrone.
Where and when is Fossombrone vs Notaresco played?: Fossombrone vs Notaresco is played on April 11, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Fossombrone, in the Serie D - Girone F.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.