AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 03:45 PM (UTC)AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
The Footlab model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 67%, against 18% for a draw and 15% for Groningen. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
AZ Alkmaar starts as the favourite with a 217-point Elo edge (2,161 vs 1,944).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AZ Alkmaar have 8 wins, 7 draws and 0 defeats; Groningen have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(away) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Utrecht(away) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | ADO Den Haag(home) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 4-0 | Super Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | ADO Den Haag(away) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Utrecht(home) | 2-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Valladolid(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Volos NFC(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 AZ Alkmaar win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Groningen win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Groningen 3-0 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Aug 10, 2025 | AZ Alkmaar 4-1 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| May 11, 2025 | AZ Alkmaar 3-0 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| Dec 18, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar 3-1 Groningen | KNVB Beker |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Groningen 0-0 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Mar 11, 2023 | AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Groningen | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AZ Alkmaar score 2.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Groningen score 1.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 2.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Groningen | 1.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AZ Alkmaar sit 1st in Eredivisie (9 points from 3 matches) and Groningen sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Groningen | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
- The Footlab model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 67%, against 18% for a draw and 15% for Groningen.
- Where and when is AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen played?
- AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen is played on November 8, 2026 at 03:45 PM (UTC) at AFAS Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.