AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 03:45 PM (UTC)AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
The Footlab AI model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 61%, against 20% for a draw and 19% for Groningen. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,456 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
AZ Alkmaar starts as the favourite with a 182-point Elo edge (2,132 vs 1,950).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
AZ Alkmaar
4-2-3-1- 9M. Meerdink
- 6P. Koopmeiners
- 11R. Daal
- 24A. Oufkir
- 14C. Stengs
- 21D. Kwakman
- 3W. Goes
- 4L. Schouten
- 22E. Dijkstra
- 5M. Chávez
- 28J. De Busser
Groningen
4-2-3-1- 9B. Willumsson
- 24P. Clement
- 8T. de Jonge
- 26T. van Bergen
- 17D. van der Werff
- 11J. Ondrejka
- 3T. Blokzijl
- 14J. Schreuders
- 5M. Rente
- 4M. Csinger
- 1E. Vaessen
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 08:35 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AZ Alkmaar have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Groningen have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Hapoel Beer Sheva(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Telstar(home) | 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sunderland(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Willem II(home) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Excelsior(away) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 18, 2026 | PEC Zwolle(home) | 3-0 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 12, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(away) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Twente(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(home) | 2-3 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 AZ Alkmaar wins, 1 draw, 1 Groningen win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Groningen 3-0 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Aug 10, 2025 | AZ Alkmaar 4-1 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| May 11, 2025 | AZ Alkmaar 3-0 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| Dec 18, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar 3-1 Groningen | KNVB Beker |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Groningen 0-0 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Mar 11, 2023 | AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Groningen | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AZ Alkmaar score 2.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Groningen score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 2.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Groningen | 1.7 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AZ Alkmaar sit 3rd in Eredivisie (19 points from 8 matches) and Groningen sit 6th (14 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 19 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 14 |
A question about AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
- The Footlab AI model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 61%, against 20% for a draw and 19% for Groningen.
- Where and when is AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen played?
- AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen is played on November 8, 2026 at 03:45 PM (UTC) at AFAS Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.