Where and when is France U21 vs Luxembourg U21 played?

France U21 vs Luxembourg U21 is played on October 3, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade de France, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

France U21 vs Luxembourg U21: prediction and stats

UEFA U21 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 2Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade de France, Saint-Denis

France U21

Luxembourg U21

The Footlab model makes France U21 the favourite at 67%, against 19% for a draw and 14% for Luxembourg U21. The most likely score is 2-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win France U21 vs Luxembourg U21?

France U21 is a heavy favourite: 1,692 Elo points against 1,313, a 379-point gap.

France U21 win67 %

Draw19 %

Luxembourg U21 win14 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, France U21 have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Luxembourg U21 have 2, 4 and 9.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

France U21
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Mar 30, 2026	Iceland U21(home)	2-1	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Mar 26, 2026	Luxembourg U21(away)	5-1	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Nov 17, 2025	Faroe Islands U21(home)	1-0	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Nov 14, 2025	Switzerland U21(away)	1-1	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Oct 13, 2025	Estonia U21(home)	6-1	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification

Luxembourg U21
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Jun 6, 2026	Kosovo U21(away)	0-0	Friendlies
Mar 26, 2026	France U21(home)	1-5	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Nov 18, 2025	Switzerland U21(home)	2-1	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Nov 13, 2025	Iceland U21(home)	1-3	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Oct 14, 2025	Iceland U21(away)	1-2	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 1 meetings: 1 France U21 win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Luxembourg U21 win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 26, 2026	Luxembourg U21 1-5 France U21	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification

Last archived meeting: Luxembourg U21 vs France U21 on Mar 26, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

France U21 score 2.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Luxembourg U21 score 0.8 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
France U21	2.5	1.2	3	9/15	10/15
Luxembourg U21	0.8	2.3	3	7/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

France U21 sit 1st in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification (16 points from 6 matches) and Luxembourg U21 sit 5th (4 points from 6 matches).

2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	France U21	6	5	1	0	21	4	16
5	Luxembourg U21	6	1	1	4	7	14	4

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for France U21 vs Luxembourg U21?: The Footlab model makes France U21 the favourite at 67%, against 19% for a draw and 14% for Luxembourg U21.
Where and when is France U21 vs Luxembourg U21 played?: France U21 vs Luxembourg U21 is played on October 3, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade de France, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.