Luxembourg U21 vs Estonia U21: prediction and stats
UEFA U21 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 22Kick-off on October 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade Josy Barthel, Luxembourg
The Footlab model makes Luxembourg U21 the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for Estonia U21. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Luxembourg U21 vs Estonia U21?
A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate Luxembourg U21 (1,313) and Estonia U21 (1,279).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Luxembourg U21 have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Estonia U21 have 2, 2 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Kosovo U21(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | France U21(home) | 1-5 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Switzerland U21(home) | 2-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Iceland U21(home) | 1-3 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Iceland U21(away) | 1-2 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Switzerland U21(away) | 1-2 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Iceland U21(away) | 2-6 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 13, 2025 | France U21(away) | 1-6 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Luxembourg U21(home) | 2-2 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Sep 8, 2025 | Iceland U21(home) | 1-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Luxembourg U21 win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Estonia U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2025 | Estonia U21 2-2 Luxembourg U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
Last archived meeting: Estonia U21 vs Luxembourg U21 on Oct 10, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Luxembourg U21 score 0.8 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Estonia U21 score 0.9 and concede 3.3. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luxembourg U21 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Estonia U21 | 0.9 | 3.3 | 1 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Luxembourg U21 sit 5th in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification (4 points from 6 matches) and Estonia U21 sit 6th (2 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Luxembourg U21 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 4 |
| 6 | Estonia U21 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Luxembourg U21 vs Estonia U21?
- The Footlab model makes Luxembourg U21 the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for Estonia U21.
- Where and when is Luxembourg U21 vs Estonia U21 played?
- Luxembourg U21 vs Estonia U21 is played on October 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Josy Barthel, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.