Friburguense vs SE Belford Roxo: prediction and stats
Carioca B2Group Stage - 5Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC)Estádio Eduardo Guinle, Nova Friburgo, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes SE Belford Roxo the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Friburguense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Friburguense vs SE Belford Roxo?
A very open match: only 44 Elo points separate Friburguense (1,541) and SE Belford Roxo (1,585).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Friburguense have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; SE Belford Roxo have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Nova Cidade(away) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Paduano(away) | 0-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Niteroiense(home) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | São Cristóvão RJ(away) | 1-3 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Duque de Caxias(home) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 23, 2026 | Resende(away) | 1-8 | Copa Rio |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Resende(home) | 1-3 | Copa Rio |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Goytacaz(home) | 1-2 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Goytacaz(away) | 0-0 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Serra Macaense(home) | 2-0 | Carioca B2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Friburguense win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 SE Belford Roxo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | SE Belford Roxo 1-1 Friburguense | Carioca - 2 |
Last archived meeting: SE Belford Roxo vs Friburguense on Nov 2, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Friburguense score 0.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; SE Belford Roxo score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friburguense | 0.5 | 1.0 | 3 | 4/15 | 1/15 |
| SE Belford Roxo | 1.4 | 1.5 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SE Belford Roxo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Friburguense vs SE Belford Roxo?
- The Footlab model makes SE Belford Roxo the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Friburguense.
- Where and when is Friburguense vs SE Belford Roxo played?
- Friburguense vs SE Belford Roxo is played on September 27, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC) at Estádio Eduardo Guinle, in the Carioca B2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.