Serra Macaense vs Rio de Janeiro: prediction and stats
Carioca B2Group Stage - 5Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC)Estádio Antônio Ferreira de Medeiros, Cardoso Moreira, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes Serra Macaense the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Rio de Janeiro. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Serra Macaense vs Rio de Janeiro?
Serra Macaense starts as the favourite with a 163-point Elo edge (1,587 vs 1,424).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Serra Macaense have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Rio de Janeiro have 0, 1 and 14.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | SE Belford Roxo(away) | 0-2 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Macaé(home) | 2-1 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Rio de Janeiro(away) | 2-0 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Goytacaz(home) | 1-0 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Santa Cruz RJ(away) | 0-0 | Carioca B2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | 7 de Abril(away) | 2-6 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Serra Macaense(home) | 0-2 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | SE Belford Roxo(away) | 0-4 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Macaé(home) | 1-6 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Goytacaz(away) | 0-3 | Carioca B2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Serra Macaense win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Rio de Janeiro win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2025 | Rio de Janeiro 0-2 Serra Macaense | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 21, 2024 | Serra Macaense 1-0 Rio de Janeiro | Carioca B2 |
Last archived meeting: Rio de Janeiro vs Serra Macaense on Nov 2, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Serra Macaense score 1.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Rio de Janeiro score 0.5 and concede 2.9. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serra Macaense | 1.1 | 0.7 | 9 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Rio de Janeiro | 0.5 | 2.9 | 0 | 6/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rio de Janeiro | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Serra Macaense vs Rio de Janeiro?
- The Footlab model makes Serra Macaense the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Rio de Janeiro.
- Where and when is Serra Macaense vs Rio de Janeiro played?
- Serra Macaense vs Rio de Janeiro is played on September 27, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC) at Estádio Antônio Ferreira de Medeiros, in the Carioca B2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.