Friska Viljor vs Sirius: prediction and stats
Svenska CupenFinalKick-off on August 26, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Skyttis IP konstgräs, Örnsköldsvik
The Footlab model makes Sirius the favourite at 80%, against 13% for a draw and 7% for Friska Viljor. The most likely score is 0-3.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Friska Viljor vs Sirius?
Sirius is a heavy favourite: 1,940 Elo points against 1,478 — a 462-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Friska Viljor have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Sirius have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Storfors(home) | 2-0 | Division 2 - Norrland |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fransta(away) | 4-2 | Division 2 - Norrland |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Umeå FC Akademi(away) | 1-1 | Division 2 - Norrland |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Umea FF(away) | 3-3 | Division 2 - Norrland |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Fransta(away) | 3-1 | Division 2 - Norrland |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | BK Hacken(home) | 0-3 | Allsvenskan |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mjallby AIF(away) | 3-4 | Allsvenskan |
| Aug 10, 2026 | IF Brommapojkarna(home) | 2-2 | Allsvenskan |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Halmstad(away) | 2-0 | Allsvenskan |
| Jul 26, 2026 | IFK Goteborg(home) | 4-1 | Allsvenskan |
How many goals should we expect?
Friska Viljor score 2.0 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Sirius score 2.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friska Viljor | 2.0 | 1.4 | 4 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Sirius | 2.5 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sirius | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Friska Viljor vs Sirius?
- The Footlab model makes Sirius the favourite at 80%, against 13% for a draw and 7% for Friska Viljor.
- Where and when is Friska Viljor vs Sirius played?
- Friska Viljor vs Sirius is played on August 26, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Skyttis IP konstgräs, in the Svenska Cupen.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.