FSV Mainz 05 II vs Freiburg II: prediction and stats
Regionalliga - SudWestSudwest - 10Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Stadion am Bruchweg, Mainz
The Footlab model makes Freiburg II the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for FSV Mainz 05 II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 II vs Freiburg II?
A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate FSV Mainz 05 II (1,915) and Freiburg II (1,918).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FSV Mainz 05 II have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Freiburg II have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kickers Offenbach(away) | 1-3 | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FSV Frankfurt(home) | 2-1 | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC 08 Homburg(away) | 1-2 | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Kreuzlingen(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 11, 2026 | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stuttgarter Kickers(away) | 2-2 | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Hessen Kassel(home) | 5-1 | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Aug 9, 2026 | VfR Aalen(away) | 1-1 | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Hoffenheim II(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | FC Schaffhausen(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 FSV Mainz 05 II win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Freiburg II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05 II 0-4 Freiburg II | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Freiburg II 2-1 FSV Mainz 05 II | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| May 17, 2025 | Freiburg II 1-3 FSV Mainz 05 II | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Nov 16, 2024 | FSV Mainz 05 II 0-1 Freiburg II | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Feb 28, 2021 | Freiburg II 3-1 FSV Mainz 05 II | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Sep 19, 2020 | FSV Mainz 05 II 2-6 Freiburg II | Regionalliga - SudWest |
Last archived meeting: FSV Mainz 05 II vs Freiburg II on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FSV Mainz 05 II score 1.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Freiburg II score 2.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 II | 1.4 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Freiburg II | 2.5 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FSV Mainz 05 II sit 13th in Regionalliga - SudWest (3 points from 3 matches) and Freiburg II sit 5th (5 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Freiburg II | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 5 |
| 13 | FSV Mainz 05 II | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FSV Mainz 05 II vs Freiburg II?
- The Footlab model makes Freiburg II the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for FSV Mainz 05 II.
- Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 II vs Freiburg II played?
- FSV Mainz 05 II vs Freiburg II is played on October 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion am Bruchweg, in the Regionalliga - SudWest.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 3, 2026SV SandhausenvsKaiserslautern II
- Oct 3, 2026VfR AalenvsFSV Frankfurt
- Oct 3, 2026Eintracht TriervsFC Astoria Walldorf
- Oct 3, 2026FC 08 HomburgvsBarockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
- Oct 3, 2026Hessen KasselvsSSV Ulm 1846
- Oct 3, 2026SGV FreibergvsTSV Steinbach
- Oct 3, 2026Stuttgarter KickersvsKickers Offenbach
- Oct 3, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt IIvsVfR Mannheim