Municipal Limeño vs Alianza: prediction and stats
Primera DivisionApertura - 22Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC)Estadio Dr. Ramón Flores Berríos, Santa Rosa de Lima
The Footlab model makes Municipal Limeño the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Alianza. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Municipal Limeño vs Alianza?
A very open match: only 47 Elo points separate Municipal Limeño (1,660) and Alianza (1,707).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Municipal Limeño have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Alianza have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cacahuatique(away) | 3-1 | Primera Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Inter(home) | 0-1 | Primera Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Firpo(away) | 0-2 | Primera Division |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Platense(home) | 1-1 | Primera Division |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Inca Aruba(home) | 2-0 | Primera Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Isidro Metapán(away) | 0-2 | Primera Division |
| Aug 20, 2026 | CD Marathon(away) | 1-0 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cacahuatique(home) | 0-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Real Estelí(away) | 1-3 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Inter(away) | 0-2 | Primera Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Municipal Limeño win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Alianza win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Municipal Limeño 0-0 Alianza | Primera Division |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Alianza 1-0 Municipal Limeño | Primera Division |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Alianza 3-0 Municipal Limeño | Primera Division |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Municipal Limeño 0-0 Alianza | Primera Division |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Municipal Limeño 0-1 Alianza | Primera Division |
| Sep 4, 2025 | Alianza 3-1 Municipal Limeño | Primera Division |
Last archived meeting: Municipal Limeño vs Alianza on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Municipal Limeño score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Alianza score 1.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Municipal Limeño | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Alianza | 1.0 | 1.2 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Municipal Limeño sit 7th in Primera Division (7 points from 6 matches) and Alianza sit 10th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Municipal Limeño | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| 10 | Alianza | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Municipal Limeño vs Alianza?
- The Footlab model makes Municipal Limeño the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Alianza.
- Where and when is Municipal Limeño vs Alianza played?
- Municipal Limeño vs Alianza is played on November 21, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC) at Estadio Dr. Ramón Flores Berríos, in the Primera Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.