Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl.: prediction and stats
Premier DivisionRegular Season - 35Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Eamonn Deacy Park, Galway
The Footlab model makes St Patrick's Athl. the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Galway United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. starts as the favourite with a 154-point Elo edge (1,750 vs 1,595).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Galway United have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; St Patrick's Athl. have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Dundalk(away) | 2-1 | Premier Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Bray Wanderers(home) | 1-1 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Drogheda United(home) | 0-0 | Premier Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Bohemians(away) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Waterford(home) | 0-0 | Premier Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Drogheda United(away) | 2-0 | Premier Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Shamrock Rovers(home) | 3-2 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Shelbourne(away) | 2-1 | Premier Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Derry City(home) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Dundalk(home) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Galway United win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 St Patrick's Athl. win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 3, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl. 3-0 Galway United | Premier Division |
| May 1, 2026 | Galway United 2-2 St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
| Mar 2, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 Galway United | Premier Division |
| Sep 19, 2025 | St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Galway United | Premier Division |
| Sep 14, 2025 | St Patrick's Athl. 3-1 Galway United | FAI Cup |
| Jun 20, 2025 | Galway United 3-1 St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
Last archived meeting: St Patrick's Athl. vs Galway United on Jul 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Galway United score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; St Patrick's Athl. score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galway United | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| St Patrick's Athl. | 1.5 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Galway United sit 7th in Premier Division (33 points from 27 matches) and St Patrick's Athl. sit 2nd (50 points from 28 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | St Patrick's Athl. | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 45 | 23 | 50 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athl. | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 17 | 38 |
| 7 | Galway United | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 35 | 41 | 33 |
| 7 | Galway United | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 28 | 31 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
- The Footlab model makes St Patrick's Athl. the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Galway United.
- Where and when is Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. played?
- Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. is played on October 23, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Eamonn Deacy Park, in the Premier Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.