Derry City vs Dundalk: prediction and stats
Premier DivisionRegular Season - 35Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Londonderry
The Footlab AI model makes Derry City the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Dundalk. The most likely score is 1-1. If Derry City wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derry City vs Dundalk?
Derry City starts as the favourite with a 119-point Elo edge (1,699 vs 1,579).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Derry City vs Dundalk
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Derry City
3-4-3- 7M. Duffy
- 14E. Chapman
- 29T. Smith
- 8A. O'Reilly
- 17N. Twisk
- 12D. Burns
- 19B. Fleming
- 3Patrick McClean
- 4J. Stott
- 23C. Dummigan
- 13Tom Norcott
Dundalk
4-2-3-1- 9C. Dillon
- 7D. Horgan
- 11R. Teahan
- 15T. Clarke
- 6A. Dervin
- 18K. Buckley
- 44T. Grivosti
- 3B. Burns
- 4M. Animasahun
- 5H. Warren
- 1E. Minogue
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derry City have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Dundalk have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Galway United(home) | 1-0 | Premier Division |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Waterford(away) | 2-2 | Premier Division |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Shelbourne(away) | 1-0 | Premier Division |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Dundalk(home) | 4-2 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Shamrock Rovers(home) | 3-3 | Premier Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Bohemians(home) | 1-2 | Premier Division |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Shelbourne(home) | 2-3 | Premier Division |
| Sep 14, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl.(home) | 0-4 | Premier Division |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Waterford(away) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Derry City(away) | 2-4 | FAI Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Derry City wins, 3 draws, 1 Dundalk win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Derry City 4-2 Dundalk | FAI Cup |
| May 29, 2026 | Dundalk 2-1 Derry City | Premier Division |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Dundalk 2-2 Derry City | Premier Division |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Derry City 2-2 Dundalk | Premier Division |
| Oct 18, 2024 | Dundalk 0-2 Derry City | Premier Division |
| Aug 9, 2024 | Derry City 1-1 Dundalk | Premier Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Derry City score 1.8 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Dundalk score 1.9 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derry City | 1.8 | 1.7 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Dundalk | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derry City sit 4th in Premier Division (41 points from 32 matches) and Dundalk sit 5th (41 points from 33 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Derry City | 32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 45 | 42 | 41 |
| 5 | Dundalk | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 50 | 55 | 41 |
A question about Derry City vs Dundalk?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derry City vs Dundalk?
- The Footlab AI model makes Derry City the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Dundalk.
- Where and when is Derry City vs Dundalk played?
- Derry City vs Dundalk is played on October 23, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, in the Premier Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.