Derry City vs Dundalk: prediction and stats
Premier DivisionRegular Season - 35Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Londonderry
The Footlab model makes Derry City the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Dundalk. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derry City vs Dundalk?
A very open match: only 61 Elo points separate Derry City (1,660) and Dundalk (1,599).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derry City have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Dundalk have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bohemians(away) | 3-5 | Premier Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | UCD(away) | 2-1 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Sligo Rovers(home) | 2-0 | Premier Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl.(away) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
| Jul 30, 2026 | HNK Rijeka(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Galway United(home) | 1-2 | Premier Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Castlebar Celtic(home) | 8-0 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Shamrock Rovers(away) | 2-3 | Premier Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Sligo Rovers(home) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl.(away) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Derry City win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Dundalk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2026 | Dundalk 2-1 Derry City | Premier Division |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Dundalk 2-2 Derry City | Premier Division |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Derry City 2-2 Dundalk | Premier Division |
| Oct 18, 2024 | Dundalk 0-2 Derry City | Premier Division |
| Aug 9, 2024 | Derry City 1-1 Dundalk | Premier Division |
| May 31, 2024 | Dundalk 0-0 Derry City | Premier Division |
Last archived meeting: Dundalk vs Derry City on May 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Derry City score 1.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Dundalk score 1.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derry City | 1.7 | 1.6 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Dundalk | 1.9 | 1.4 | 3 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derry City sit 6th in Premier Division (33 points from 28 matches) and Dundalk sit 4th (37 points from 28 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Dundalk | 21 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 34 | 29 | 35 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 28 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 43 | 43 | 37 |
| 6 | Derry City | 28 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 38 | 37 | 33 |
| 6 | Derry City | 22 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 27 | 26 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derry City vs Dundalk?
- The Footlab model makes Derry City the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Dundalk.
- Where and when is Derry City vs Dundalk played?
- Derry City vs Dundalk is played on October 23, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, in the Premier Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.