Gela vs Sambiase: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone IGroup I - 18Kick-off on January 6, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Vincenzo Presti, Gela
The Footlab model makes Sambiase the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Gela. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gela vs Sambiase?
A very open match: only 91 Elo points separate Gela (1,673) and Sambiase (1,764).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gela have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Sambiase have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Gelbison(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Vibonese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 19, 2026 | CastrumFavara(away) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Reggina(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Nissa(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Salernitana(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Reggina(away) | 2-4 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Nissa(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Milazzo(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Enna(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Gela win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Sambiase win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Sambiase 2-1 Gela | Serie D - Girone I |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Gela 0-3 Sambiase | Serie D - Girone I |
How many goals should we expect?
Gela score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Sambiase score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gela | 0.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Sambiase | 1.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gela sit 9th in Serie D - Girone I (43 points from 34 matches) and Sambiase sit 6th (53 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sambiase | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 38 | 30 | 53 |
| 9 | Gela | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 41 | 44 | 43 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gela vs Sambiase?
- The Footlab model makes Sambiase the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Gela.
- Where and when is Gela vs Sambiase played?
- Gela vs Sambiase is played on January 6, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Vincenzo Presti, in the Serie D - Girone I.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.