Gemert vs FC Lisse: prediction and stats
Derde DivisieRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark Molenbroek, Gemert
The Footlab model makes FC Lisse the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Gemert. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gemert vs FC Lisse?
A very open match: only 47 Elo points separate Gemert (1,815) and FC Lisse (1,862).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gemert have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; FC Lisse have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rijnvogels(away) | 2-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Helmond Sport(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | GOES(away) | 3-3 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| May 16, 2026 | SteDoCo(home) | 6-1 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| May 10, 2026 | Vvsb(home) | 0-1 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Roosendaal(away) | 1-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Aalsmeer(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Achilles Veen(home) | 4-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | TOGB(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 30, 2026 | ADO '20(home) | 0-1 | Tweede Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Gemert win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 FC Lisse win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Gemert 1-1 FC Lisse | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Oct 11, 2025 | FC Lisse 1-1 Gemert | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Gemert 2-0 FC Lisse | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Nov 9, 2024 | FC Lisse 2-2 Gemert | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
How many goals should we expect?
Gemert score 2.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; FC Lisse score 1.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemert | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| FC Lisse | 1.9 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gemert sit 11th in Derde Divisie (1 points from 1 matches) and FC Lisse sit 2nd (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FC Lisse | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | Gemert | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gemert vs FC Lisse?
- The Footlab model makes FC Lisse the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Gemert.
- Where and when is Gemert vs FC Lisse played?
- Gemert vs FC Lisse is played on October 4, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Molenbroek, in the Derde Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.