Geoje Citizen vs Pyeongtaek Citizen: prediction and stats
K4 LeagueRegular Season - 24Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC)Geoje Stadium, Geoje
The Footlab model makes Geoje Citizen the favourite at 64%, against 19% for a draw and 17% for Pyeongtaek Citizen. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Geoje Citizen vs Pyeongtaek Citizen?
Geoje Citizen starts as the favourite with a 176-point Elo edge (1,613 vs 1,437).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Geoje Citizen have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Pyeongtaek Citizen have 1, 2 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | Jincheon(away) | 1-4 | K4 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Busan I Park(away) | 0-4 | FA Cup |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Pyeongchang United(away) | 3-1 | K4 League |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Incheon Seogot(home) | 4-0 | FA Cup |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Sejong SA(home) | 1-2 | K4 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Jinju Citizen(home) | 0-2 | K4 League |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Seosan Pioneer(home) | 0-5 | K4 League |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Yeoju Sejong(home) | 1-3 | FA Cup |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Jungnang Chorus Mustang(home) | 1-1 | K4 League |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Jecheon Citizen(home) | 2-3 | K4 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Geoje Citizen win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Pyeongtaek Citizen win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Pyeongtaek Citizen 2-3 Geoje Citizen | K4 League |
Last archived meeting: Pyeongtaek Citizen vs Geoje Citizen on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Geoje Citizen score 1.9 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Pyeongtaek Citizen score 0.9 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoje Citizen | 1.9 | 1.8 | 3 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
| Pyeongtaek Citizen | 0.9 | 2.7 | 1 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Geoje Citizen sit 8th in K4 League (21 points from 16 matches) and Pyeongtaek Citizen sit 13th (9 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Geoje Citizen | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 30 | 26 | 21 |
| 13 | Pyeongtaek Citizen | 17 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 16 | 39 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Geoje Citizen vs Pyeongtaek Citizen?
- The Footlab model makes Geoje Citizen the favourite at 64%, against 19% for a draw and 17% for Pyeongtaek Citizen.
- Where and when is Geoje Citizen vs Pyeongtaek Citizen played?
- Geoje Citizen vs Pyeongtaek Citizen is played on October 11, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC) at Geoje Stadium, in the K4 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.