Where and when is Gernika vs Llanera played?

Gernika vs Llanera is played on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Urbieta, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Gernika vs Llanera: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 3Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Urbieta, Gernika-Lumo

Gernika

Llanera

The Footlab model makes Llanera the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Gernika. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Gernika vs Llanera?

Llanera starts as the favourite with a 163-point Elo edge (2,001 vs 1,838).

Gernika win28 %

Draw28 %

Llanera win45 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gernika have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Llanera have 12, 3 and 0.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Gernika
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 3, 2026	Deportivo Alavés II(home)	0-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 26, 2026	Basconia(away)	0-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 18, 2026	Tudelano(home)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 11, 2026	Amorebieta(away)	2-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 4, 2026	Utebo(home)	0-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Llanera
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 18, 2026	Sporting Gijón II(away)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 14, 2026	Avilés Stadium(away)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs
May 10, 2026	Avilés Stadium(away)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 2
May 3, 2026	Tuilla(home)	4-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 25, 2026	Real Titánico(home)	3-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

How many goals should we expect?

Gernika score 1.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Llanera score 1.9 and concede 0.4. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Gernika	1.0	1.5	5	7/15	6/15
Llanera	1.9	0.4	11	4/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Gernika vs Llanera?: The Footlab model makes Llanera the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Gernika.
Where and when is Gernika vs Llanera played?: Gernika vs Llanera is played on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Urbieta, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.