Gernika vs Portugalete: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 · Matchday 14Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Urbieta, Gernika-Lumo
The Footlab AI model makes Portugalete the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Gernika. The most likely score is 1-1. If Portugalete wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 5,941 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gernika vs Portugalete?
A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate Gernika (1,847) and Portugalete (1,933).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Gernika vs Portugalete
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Gernika
Not enough data to predict the Gernika lineup.
Portugalete
Not enough data to predict the Portugalete lineup.
Computed on November 14, 2026 at 12:01 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gernika have 3 wins, 9 draws and 3 defeats; Portugalete have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Gimnástica Torrelavega(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Marino de Luanco(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Atlético Astorga(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Amorebieta(home) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés II(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Ourense CF(away) | 3-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Arosa(home) | 3-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Basconia(away) | 2-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Eibar II(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Amorebieta(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Gernika win, 0 draws, 1 Portugalete win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2022 | Gernika 2-1 Portugalete | Friendlies Clubs |
| Dec 1, 2019 | Portugalete 1-0 Gernika | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Gernika vs Portugalete on Aug 24, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Gernika score 1.2 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Portugalete score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gernika | 1.2 | 0.8 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Portugalete | 1.7 | 1.2 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gernika sit 11th in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 (12 points from 10 matches) and Portugalete sit 6th (16 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Portugalete | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 16 |
| 11 | Gernika | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 12 |
A question about Gernika vs Portugalete?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gernika vs Portugalete?
- The Footlab AI model makes Portugalete the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Gernika.
- Where and when is Gernika vs Portugalete played?
- Gernika vs Portugalete is played on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Urbieta, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.