Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano vs Montevarchi Calcio: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone EGroup E - 8Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Carraia, Coreglia Antelminelli
The Footlab model makes Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano the favourite at 36%, against 33% for a draw and 31% for Montevarchi Calcio. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano vs Montevarchi Calcio?
A very open match: only 55 Elo points separate Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano (1,637) and Montevarchi Calcio (1,692).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Montevarchi Calcio have 5, 9 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Grosseto(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Montevarchi Calcio(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Seravezza(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 12, 2026 | San Donato Tavarnelle(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Foligno Calcio(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Figline(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Prato(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Robur Siena(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Terranuova Traiana(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Montevarchi Calcio win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Montevarchi Calcio 1-0 Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | Serie D - Girone E |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 0-2 Montevarchi Calcio | Serie D - Girone E |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 0-1 Montevarchi Calcio | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Montevarchi Calcio 0-1 Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | Serie D - Girone E |
| Mar 10, 2024 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 1-2 Montevarchi Calcio | Serie D - Girone E |
| Nov 1, 2023 | Montevarchi Calcio 1-2 Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | Serie D - Girone E |
Last archived meeting: Montevarchi Calcio vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano score 1.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Montevarchi Calcio score 0.7 and concede 0.3. The model gives a 31% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 1.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Montevarchi Calcio | 0.7 | 0.3 | 10 | 4/15 | 0/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano sit 11th in Serie D - Girone E (40 points from 34 matches) and Montevarchi Calcio sit 9th (46 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Montevarchi Calcio | 34 | 10 | 16 | 8 | 28 | 32 | 46 |
| 11 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 42 | 44 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano vs Montevarchi Calcio?
- The Footlab model makes Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano the favourite at 36%, against 33% for a draw and 31% for Montevarchi Calcio.
- Where and when is Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano vs Montevarchi Calcio played?
- Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano vs Montevarchi Calcio is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Carraia, in the Serie D - Girone E.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 31% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.