Grassina vs Progresso: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone EGroup E - 8Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio di Grassina, Bagno a Ripoli
The Footlab AI model makes Grassina the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Progresso. The most likely score is 1-1. If Grassina wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Grassina vs Progresso?
A very open match: only 75 Elo points separate Grassina (1,703) and Progresso (1,628).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Grassina vs Progresso
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Grassina
Not enough data to predict the Grassina lineup.
Progresso
Not enough data to predict the Progresso lineup.
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Grassina have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Progresso have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Tau Altopascio(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Lucchese(home) | 3-6 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Mezzolara(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Scandicci(home) | 2-3 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Prato(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Robur Siena(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Rondinella(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Montevarchi Calcio(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Seravezza(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Lucchese(away) | 0-5 | Serie D - Girone E |
How many goals should we expect?
Grassina score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Progresso score 1.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grassina | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
| Progresso | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Grassina sit 17th in Serie D - Girone E (2 points from 6 matches) and Progresso sit 16th (3 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Progresso | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 3 |
| 17 | Grassina | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 2 |
A question about Grassina vs Progresso?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Grassina vs Progresso?
- The Footlab AI model makes Grassina the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Progresso.
- Where and when is Grassina vs Progresso played?
- Grassina vs Progresso is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio di Grassina, in the Serie D - Girone E.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 18, 2026TernanavsRobur Siena
- Oct 18, 2026GavorranovsPrato
- Oct 18, 2026Ghivizzano Borgo MozzanovsMontevarchi Calcio
- Oct 18, 2026Sasso Marconi ZolavsLucchese
- Oct 18, 2026FlaminiavsMezzolara
- Oct 18, 2026San Donato TavarnellevsTau Altopascio
- Oct 18, 2026Terranuova TraianavsScandicci
- Oct 18, 2026RondinellavsSeravezza