Where and when is Grassina vs Progresso played?

Grassina vs Progresso is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio di Grassina, in the Serie D - Girone E.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Grassina vs Progresso: prediction and stats

Serie D - Girone EGroup E - 8Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio di Grassina, Bagno a Ripoli

Grassina

Progresso

The Footlab model makes Grassina the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Progresso. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Grassina vs Progresso?

A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Grassina (1,760) and Progresso (1,682).

Grassina win48 %

Draw28 %

Progresso win24 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Grassina have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Progresso have 3, 5 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Grassina
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Mar 1, 2020	Aglianese(away)	3-3	Serie D - Girone E
Feb 23, 2020	Gavorrano(away)	0-2	Serie D - Girone E
Feb 16, 2020	Flaminia(home)	2-0	Serie D - Girone E
Feb 9, 2020	Cannara(away)	1-1	Serie D - Girone E
Feb 2, 2020	Scandicci(home)	1-0	Serie D - Girone E

Progresso
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 3, 2026	Sasso Marconi Zola(home)	4-1	Serie D - Girone D
Apr 26, 2026	Sant'Angelo(away)	1-1	Serie D - Girone D
Apr 19, 2026	Lentigione(away)	2-1	Serie D - Girone D
Apr 12, 2026	Correggese(home)	1-1	Serie D - Girone D
Apr 2, 2026	Tuttocuoio(away)	2-0	Serie D - Girone D

How many goals should we expect?

Grassina score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Progresso score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Grassina	1.5	1.1	5	8/15	7/15
Progresso	1.0	1.3	3	7/15	6/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Grassina vs Progresso?: The Footlab model makes Grassina the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Progresso.
Where and when is Grassina vs Progresso played?: Grassina vs Progresso is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio di Grassina, in the Serie D - Girone E.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.