Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 14Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo, La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Gimnasia L.P. the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Sarmiento Junin. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Gimnasia L.P. (1,879) and Sarmiento Junin (1,801).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gimnasia L.P. have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Sarmiento Junin have 8, 0 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gimnasia M.(home) | 2-3 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Deportivo Riestra(away) | 1-1 | Copa Argentina |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P.(away) | 0-4 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Barracas Central(home) | 2-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Aldosivi(away) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P.(home) | 2-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Huracan(home) | 2-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Atletico Tucuman(away) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Banfield(away) | 2-3 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Gimnasia L.P. win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 Sarmiento Junin win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2026 | Sarmiento Junin 1-2 Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Sarmiento Junin 0-1 Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Gimnasia L.P. 0-0 Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Oct 18, 2024 | Sarmiento Junin 1-1 Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| May 27, 2023 | Gimnasia L.P. 0-0 Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 28, 2022 | Sarmiento Junin 0-0 Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Last archived meeting: Sarmiento Junin vs Gimnasia L.P. on Apr 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gimnasia L.P. score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Sarmiento Junin score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia L.P. | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Sarmiento Junin | 1.3 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gimnasia L.P. sit 6th in Liga Profesional Argentina (26 points from 16 matches) and Sarmiento Junin sit 11th (19 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sarmiento Junin | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 12 |
| 6 | Gimnasia L.P. | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 26 |
| 7 | Gimnasia L.P. | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 9 |
| 11 | Sarmiento Junin | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 20 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin?
- The Footlab model makes Gimnasia L.P. the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Sarmiento Junin.
- Where and when is Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin played?
- Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin is played on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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