Independiente vs Boca Juniors: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 14Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Libertadores de América, Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Independiente the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for Boca Juniors. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Independiente vs Boca Juniors?
A very open match: only 59 Elo points separate Independiente (1,923) and Boca Juniors (1,981).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Independiente have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Boca Juniors have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia(home) | 0-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Lanus(away) | 3-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Atletico Tucuman(away) | 0-4 | Copa Argentina |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Platense(home) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Velez Sarsfield(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Deportivo Recoleta(away) | 4-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Platense(away) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Deportivo Recoleta(home) | 3-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Velez Sarsfield(home) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P.(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Independiente win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Boca Juniors win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Boca Juniors 1-1 Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| May 20, 2025 | Boca Juniors 0-1 Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Boca Juniors 0-0 Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 29, 2023 | Independiente 0-2 Boca Juniors | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jan 8, 2023 | Boca Juniors 0-0 Independiente | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 23, 2022 | Boca Juniors 2-2 Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Last archived meeting: Boca Juniors vs Independiente on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Independiente score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Boca Juniors score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Boca Juniors | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Independiente sit 5th in Liga Profesional Argentina (24 points from 16 matches) and Boca Juniors sit 2nd (30 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 30 |
| 4 | Independiente | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 24 |
| 13 | Boca Juniors | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Independiente vs Boca Juniors?
- The Footlab model makes Independiente the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for Boca Juniors.
- Where and when is Independiente vs Boca Juniors played?
- Independiente vs Boca Juniors is played on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Libertadores de América, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 25, 2026Gimnasia L.P.vsSarmiento Junin
- Oct 25, 2026River PlatevsRacing Club
- Oct 25, 2026Rosario CentralvsHuracan
- Oct 25, 2026Union Santa FevsEstudiantes L.P.
- Oct 25, 2026BanfieldvsLanus
- Oct 25, 2026TigrevsAtletico Tucuman
- Oct 25, 2026Talleres CordobavsDefensa Y Justicia
- Oct 25, 2026Argentinos JRSvsIndepend. Rivadavia