Match

Independiente vs Boca Juniors: prediction and stats

Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 14Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Libertadores de América, Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires

IndependienteBoca Juniors

The Footlab AI model makes Boca Juniors the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Independiente. The most likely score is 1-1. If Boca Juniors wins, the most likely score is 0-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Independiente vs Boca Juniors?

Boca Juniors starts as the favourite with a 131-point Elo edge (2,069 vs 1,937).

23%28%49%
Independiente winDrawBoca Juniors win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Independiente vs Boca Juniors

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Independiente

4-3-3
  1. 7S. Montiel
  2. 19M. Abaldo
  3. 9I. Morales
  1. 23I. Marcone
  2. 16M. Perez
  3. 8M. Meza
  1. 29L. Godoy
  2. 13J. Fedorco
  3. 22F. Zabala
  4. 35J. Arrayago
  1. 33R. Rey

Boca Juniors

4-2-3-1
  1. 16M. Merentiel
  1. 20A. Velasco
  2. 25S. Ascacíbar
  3. 5L. Paredes
  4. 18M. Delgado
  5. 22S. Villa
  1. 3L. Blanco
  2. 2L. Di Lollo
  3. 42F. Herrera
  4. 17L. Lozano
  1. 12L. Brey

Computed on October 8, 2026 at 10:18 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Independiente have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Boca Juniors have 9, 6 and 0.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Independiente
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 2, 2026Instituto Cordoba(home)1-4Liga Profesional Argentina
Sep 19, 2026Union Santa Fe(away)2-1Liga Profesional Argentina
Sep 13, 2026San Lorenzo(home)1-1Liga Profesional Argentina
Sep 6, 2026Central Cordoba de Santiago(away)1-0Liga Profesional Argentina
Aug 30, 2026Gimnasia M.(home)0-3Liga Profesional Argentina
Boca Juniors
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 3, 2026Union Santa Fe(home)3-0Liga Profesional Argentina
Sep 27, 2026Racing Club(away)3-2Copa Argentina
Sep 20, 2026San Lorenzo(away)2-0Liga Profesional Argentina
Sep 16, 2026Sao Paulo(away)1-1CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Sep 12, 2026Central Cordoba de Santiago(home)3-1Liga Profesional Argentina

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Independiente win, 4 draws, 1 Boca Juniors win.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 11, 2026Boca Juniors 1-1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
May 20, 2025Boca Juniors 0-1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
Dec 14, 2024Boca Juniors 0-0 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
Jul 29, 2023Independiente 0-2 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
Jan 8, 2023Boca Juniors 0-0 IndependienteFriendlies Clubs
Oct 23, 2022Boca Juniors 2-2 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina

Last archived meeting: Boca Juniors vs Independiente on Apr 11, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Independiente score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Boca Juniors score 1.8 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Independiente1.11.356/157/15
Boca Juniors1.80.778/156/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Independiente sit 8th in Liga Profesional Argentina (17 points from 11 matches) and Boca Juniors sit 4th (20 points from 11 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
4Boca Juniors11551171120
8Independiente11524111217

A question about Independiente vs Boca Juniors?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Independiente vs Boca Juniors?
The Footlab AI model makes Boca Juniors the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Independiente.
Where and when is Independiente vs Boca Juniors played?
Independiente vs Boca Juniors is played on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Libertadores de América, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Independiente and Boca Juniors

Ready to know everything about football?