Golden Arrows vs Mamelodi Sundowns: prediction and stats
8 CupSemi-finalsKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Sugar Ray Xulu Stadium, Durban
The Footlab model makes Mamelodi Sundowns the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Golden Arrows. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Golden Arrows vs Mamelodi Sundowns?
Mamelodi Sundowns starts as the favourite with a 261-point Elo edge (2,047 vs 1,785).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Golden Arrows have 6 wins, 8 draws and 1 defeats; Mamelodi Sundowns have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mamelodi Sundowns(away) | 1-0 | 8 Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | TS Galaxy(away) | 0-0 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Durban City(away) | 0-0 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kaizer Chiefs(away) | 1-0 | 8 Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Chippa United(home) | 0-0 | Premier Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Golden Arrows(home) | 0-1 | 8 Cup |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Marumo Gallants(home) | 2-0 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kaizer Chiefs(away) | 1-1 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | TS Galaxy(away) | 3-2 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Polokwane City(home) | 3-2 | 8 Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Golden Arrows win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Mamelodi Sundowns win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mamelodi Sundowns 0-1 Golden Arrows | 8 Cup |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Mamelodi Sundowns 2-1 Golden Arrows | Premier Soccer League |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Golden Arrows 1-0 Mamelodi Sundowns | Premier Soccer League |
| Mar 5, 2025 | Golden Arrows 1-1 Mamelodi Sundowns | Premier Soccer League |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Mamelodi Sundowns 4-0 Golden Arrows | Premier Soccer League |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Mamelodi Sundowns 5-0 Golden Arrows | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Mamelodi Sundowns vs Golden Arrows on Aug 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Golden Arrows score 0.7 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Mamelodi Sundowns score 2.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Arrows | 0.7 | 0.5 | 11 | 3/15 | 2/15 |
| Mamelodi Sundowns | 2.0 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Golden Arrows vs Mamelodi Sundowns?
- The Footlab model makes Mamelodi Sundowns the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Golden Arrows.
- Where and when is Golden Arrows vs Mamelodi Sundowns played?
- Golden Arrows vs Mamelodi Sundowns is played on August 30, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Sugar Ray Xulu Stadium, in the 8 Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.