Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City: prediction and stats
Premier Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Loftus Versfeld Stadium, Tshwane
The Footlab model makes Mamelodi Sundowns the favourite at 68%, against 21% for a draw and 11% for Durban City. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City?
Mamelodi Sundowns is a heavy favourite: 2,047 Elo points against 1,734 — a 313-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mamelodi Sundowns have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Durban City have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Golden Arrows(home) | 0-1 | 8 Cup |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Marumo Gallants(home) | 2-0 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kaizer Chiefs(away) | 1-1 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | TS Galaxy(away) | 3-2 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Polokwane City(home) | 3-2 | 8 Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Richards Bay(home) | 1-1 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Golden Arrows(home) | 0-0 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Orlando Pirates(away) | 1-2 | 8 Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sekhukhune United(away) | 0-1 | Premier Soccer League |
| May 23, 2026 | Amazulu(home) | 0-1 | Premier Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Mamelodi Sundowns win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Durban City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2026 | Durban City 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns | Premier Soccer League |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Mamelodi Sundowns 3-1 Durban City | Premier Soccer League |
Last archived meeting: Durban City vs Mamelodi Sundowns on Apr 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mamelodi Sundowns score 2.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Durban City score 0.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mamelodi Sundowns | 2.0 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| Durban City | 0.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mamelodi Sundowns sit 3rd in Premier Soccer League (7 points from 3 matches) and Durban City sit 12th (2 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | Durban City | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City?
- The Footlab model makes Mamelodi Sundowns the favourite at 68%, against 21% for a draw and 11% for Durban City.
- Where and when is Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City played?
- Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City is played on November 1, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Loftus Versfeld Stadium, in the Premier Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.