Gomel II vs Smorgon: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 33Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Smorgon the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Gomel II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gomel II vs Smorgon?
Smorgon starts as the favourite with a 168-point Elo edge (1,431 vs 1,263).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gomel II have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Smorgon have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Uni Minsk(home) | 0-4 | 1. Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Molodechno-DYuSSh 4(away) | 0-3 | 1. Division |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Shakhter Soligorsk(home) | 3-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Orsha(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Volna(home) | 1-4 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ostrovets FC(home) | 0-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Slonim(away) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 10, 2026 | BATE II(home) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Uni Minsk(away) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Molodechno-DYuSSh 4(away) | 0-3 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Gomel II win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Smorgon win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | Smorgon 2-0 Gomel II | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Gomel II score 1.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Smorgon score 2.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gomel II | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Smorgon | 2.1 | 1.3 | 7 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gomel II sit 16th in 1. Division (20 points from 21 matches) and Smorgon sit 14th (23 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Smorgon | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 24 | 30 | 23 |
| 15 | Gomel II | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 18 | 10 |
| 16 | Smorgon | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 10 |
| 16 | Gomel II | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 28 | 37 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gomel II vs Smorgon?
- The Footlab model makes Smorgon the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Gomel II.
- Where and when is Gomel II vs Smorgon played?
- Gomel II vs Smorgon is played on November 14, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.