GOR Mahia vs Police: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueMatchday 32Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi
The Footlab AI model makes GOR Mahia the favourite at 38%, against 33% for a draw and 29% for Police. The most likely score is 0-0. If GOR Mahia wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 6,019 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win GOR Mahia vs Police?
A very open match: only 90 Elo points separate GOR Mahia (1,686) and Police (1,596).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for GOR Mahia vs Police
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
GOR Mahia
4-3-3- 40C. Ochieng Oduor
- 30S. Kapen
- 22B. Ochieng
- 6E. Morrison
- 10A. Otieno
- 26P. Otieno
- 2G. Ochieng
- 5Alphonce Omija
- 15S. Owino
- 19Shariff Sirengo
- 35K. Omondi Onyango
Police
Not enough data to predict the Police lineup.
Computed on November 14, 2026 at 03:55 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, GOR Mahia have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Police have 6, 8 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Nairobi United(home) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 1, 2026 | KCB(home) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Homeboyz(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | APS Bomet(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Migori Youth(away) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Tusker(away) | 1-2 | Shield Cup |
| May 31, 2026 | Homeboyz(home) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 27, 2026 | Kariobangi Sharks(home) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | Nairobi United(away) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 GOR Mahia win, 3 draws, 2 Police wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | GOR Mahia 1-1 Police | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Police 0-2 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
| Jun 22, 2025 | GOR Mahia 1-1 Police | FKF Premier League |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Police 1-0 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Police 3-1 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 5, 2023 | GOR Mahia 0-0 Police | FKF Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
GOR Mahia score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Police score 1.0 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOR Mahia | 1.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Police | 1.0 | 0.5 | 8 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
GOR Mahia sit 1st in FKF Premier League (13 points from 6 matches) and Police sit 9th (1 point from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 13 |
| 9 | Police | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
A question about GOR Mahia vs Police?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for GOR Mahia vs Police?
- The Footlab AI model makes GOR Mahia the favourite at 38%, against 33% for a draw and 29% for Police.
- Where and when is GOR Mahia vs Police played?
- GOR Mahia vs Police is played on May 2, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Nyayo National Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.