Ulinzi Stars vs GOR Mahia: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 33Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Afraha Stadium, Nakuru
The Footlab model makes GOR Mahia the favourite at 49%, against 29% for a draw and 21% for Ulinzi Stars. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ulinzi Stars vs GOR Mahia?
GOR Mahia starts as the favourite with a 196-point Elo edge (1,680 vs 1,485).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ulinzi Stars have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; GOR Mahia have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Posta Rangers FC(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 27, 2026 | Tusker(home) | 2-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 23, 2026 | Mathare United(home) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 13, 2026 | AFC Leopards(home) | 0-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 9, 2026 | Shabana(away) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Rayon Sports(away) | 1-2 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Al Hilal Omdurman(home) | 1-1 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Al-Haras Al-Jumhuri(home) | 1-0 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Vipers(home) | 0-1 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 24, 2026 | APR(away) | 5-0 | CECAFA Club Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Ulinzi Stars win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 GOR Mahia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars 1-3 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 2, 2025 | GOR Mahia 1-1 Ulinzi Stars | FKF Premier League |
| Jun 15, 2025 | Ulinzi Stars 2-3 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
| Dec 18, 2024 | GOR Mahia 3-0 Ulinzi Stars | FKF Premier League |
| Feb 10, 2024 | GOR Mahia 0-0 Ulinzi Stars | FKF Premier League |
| Sep 2, 2023 | Ulinzi Stars 0-1 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Ulinzi Stars vs GOR Mahia on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ulinzi Stars score 1.2 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; GOR Mahia score 1.1 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ulinzi Stars | 1.2 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| GOR Mahia | 1.1 | 0.6 | 7 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ulinzi Stars sit 13th in FKF Premier League (41 points from 34 matches) and GOR Mahia sit 1st (69 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 50 | 22 | 69 |
| 13 | Ulinzi Stars | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 34 | 37 | 41 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ulinzi Stars vs GOR Mahia?
- The Footlab model makes GOR Mahia the favourite at 49%, against 29% for a draw and 21% for Ulinzi Stars.
- Where and when is Ulinzi Stars vs GOR Mahia played?
- Ulinzi Stars vs GOR Mahia is played on May 9, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Afraha Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.