Mathare United vs Mara Sugar: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 32Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Moi International Sports Centre, Nairobi
The Footlab AI model makes Mathare United the favourite at 34%, against 33% for a draw and 33% for Mara Sugar. The most likely score is 0-0. If Mathare United wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,456 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mathare United vs Mara Sugar?
A very open match: only 28 Elo points separate Mathare United (1,459) and Mara Sugar (1,487).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mathare United vs Mara Sugar
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mathare United
Not enough data to predict the Mathare United lineup.
Mara Sugar
Not enough data to predict the Mara Sugar lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 01:24 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mathare United have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Mara Sugar have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 23, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mara Sugar(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 0-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | 3K(away) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Murang'a SEAL(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 27, 2026 | GOR Mahia(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mathare United(home) | 0-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 13, 2026 | Shabana(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Mathare United wins, 0 draws, 3 Mara Sugar wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Mara Sugar 0-1 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| Dec 8, 2025 | Mathare United 0-1 Mara Sugar | FKF Premier League |
| Mar 28, 2025 | Mathare United 2-1 Mara Sugar | FKF Premier League |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Mara Sugar 3-0 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| Jun 22, 2024 | Mara Sugar 1-0 Mathare United | Super League |
| Oct 21, 2023 | Mathare United 2-0 Mara Sugar | Super League |
Last archived meeting: Mara Sugar vs Mathare United on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mathare United score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Mara Sugar score 0.9 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathare United | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Mara Sugar | 0.9 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mathare United sit 11th in FKF Premier League (1 point from 1 match) and Mara Sugar sit 6th (1 point from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mara Sugar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Mathare United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
A question about Mathare United vs Mara Sugar?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mathare United vs Mara Sugar?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mathare United the favourite at 34%, against 33% for a draw and 33% for Mara Sugar.
- Where and when is Mathare United vs Mara Sugar played?
- Mathare United vs Mara Sugar is played on May 2, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Moi International Sports Centre, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.