Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Merkur Arena, Graz
The Footlab model makes Red Bull Salzburg the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Grazer AK. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg starts as the favourite with a 190-point Elo edge (2,071 vs 1,882).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Grazer AK have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Red Bull Salzburg have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Ried(away) | 0-1 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Rapid Vienna(away) | 0-8 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Austria Lustenau(home) | 2-1 | Bundesliga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Lask Linz(away) | 0-3 | Bundesliga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Fach-Donaufeld(away) | 4-0 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Mjallby AIF(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | WSG Wattens(away) | 3-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Pafos(away) | 3-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Wolfsberger AC(away) | 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Pafos(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Grazer AK win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Red Bull Salzburg win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2026 | Grazer AK 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg | Bundesliga |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Red Bull Salzburg 5-0 Grazer AK | Bundesliga |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Red Bull Salzburg 0-0 Grazer AK | Bundesliga |
| Aug 2, 2024 | Grazer AK 2-3 Red Bull Salzburg | Bundesliga |
| Feb 4, 2023 | Red Bull Salzburg 3-4 Grazer AK | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 3, 2019 | Grazer AK 0-6 Red Bull Salzburg | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg on Feb 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Grazer AK score 1.4 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Red Bull Salzburg score 1.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grazer AK | 1.4 | 2.0 | 4 | 5/15 | 11/15 |
| Red Bull Salzburg | 1.9 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Grazer AK sit 11th in Bundesliga (3 points from 4 matches) and Red Bull Salzburg sit 4th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Grazer AK | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg?
- The Footlab model makes Red Bull Salzburg the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Grazer AK.
- Where and when is Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg played?
- Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg is played on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Merkur Arena, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.