Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Generali Arena, Wien
The Footlab model makes Sturm Graz the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Austria Vienna. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
A very open match: only 99 Elo points separate Austria Vienna (1,990) and Sturm Graz (2,089).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Austria Vienna have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Sturm Graz have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | SC Braga(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | TSV Hartberg(away) | 2-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Beitar Jerusalem(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Lask Linz(home) | 0-2 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Beitar Jerusalem(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Austria Lustenau(home) | 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | SCR Altach(home) | 1-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | TSV Hartberg(away) | 2-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Austria Vienna win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Sturm Graz win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Sturm Graz 1-1 Austria Vienna | Bundesliga |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Austria Vienna 2-5 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Austria Vienna 3-1 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Sturm Graz 0-1 Austria Vienna | Bundesliga |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Sturm Graz 0-1 Austria Vienna | Bundesliga |
| Apr 23, 2025 | Austria Vienna 2-1 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
Last archived meeting: Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Austria Vienna score 1.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Sturm Graz score 2.2 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria Vienna | 1.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Sturm Graz | 2.2 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Austria Vienna sit 9th in Bundesliga (3 points from 3 matches) and Sturm Graz sit 3rd (8 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Austria Vienna | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
- The Footlab model makes Sturm Graz the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Austria Vienna.
- Where and when is Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz played?
- Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz is played on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Generali Arena, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.