Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Merkur Arena, Graz
The Footlab AI model makes Sturm Graz the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Grazer AK. The most likely score is 1-1. If Sturm Graz wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,789 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz starts as the favourite with a 171-point Elo edge (2,094 vs 1,923).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Grazer AK
3-4-2-1- 25A. Hofleitner
- 34P. Michorl
- 10C. Lichtenberger
- 32L. Klassen
- 24C. Cvetko
- 28Anderson
- 14J. Italiano
- 82B. Owusu
- 27Y. Oberleitner
- 21M. Sollbauer
- 23C. Stanković
Sturm Graz
3-4-2-1- 14O. Diakité
- 4J. Gorenc Stankovič
- 19S. Seidl
- 78V. Matoshi
- 27L. Balbo
- 28J. Heil
- 39Luca Weinhandl
- 2J. Quarshie
- 23A. Malic
- 30P. Koller
- 53D. Khudyakov
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 05:12 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Grazer AK have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Sturm Graz have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Sturm Graz(away) | 1-6 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(home) | 0-0 | Bundesliga |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Kalsdorf(away) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Austria Vienna(home) | 2-2 | Bundesliga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | SCR Altach(away) | 2-1 | Bundesliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Grazer AK(home) | 6-1 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Bournemouth(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Austria Vienna(away) | 2-0 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Floridsdorfer AC(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(away) | 0-3 | Bundesliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Grazer AK wins, 0 draws, 6 Sturm Graz wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Sturm Graz 6-1 Grazer AK | Bundesliga |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Sturm Graz 2-1 Grazer AK | Bundesliga |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Grazer AK 0-3 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Grazer AK 1-2 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Sturm Graz 5-2 Grazer AK | Bundesliga |
| Nov 2, 2023 | Grazer AK 2-3 Sturm Graz | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK on Oct 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Grazer AK score 1.4 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Sturm Graz score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grazer AK | 1.4 | 2.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
| Sturm Graz | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Grazer AK sit 8th in Bundesliga (9 points from 9 matches) and Sturm Graz sit 4th (17 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 17 |
| 8 | Grazer AK | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 9 |
A question about Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sturm Graz the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Grazer AK.
- Where and when is Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz played?
- Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz is played on December 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Merkur Arena, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.