Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Merkur Arena, Graz
The Footlab model makes Sturm Graz the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Grazer AK. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?
Sturm Graz starts as the favourite with a 207-point Elo edge (2,089 vs 1,882).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sturm Graz have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Grazer AK have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Austria Lustenau(home) | 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | SCR Altach(home) | 1-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | TSV Hartberg(away) | 2-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Ried(away) | 0-1 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Rapid Vienna(away) | 0-8 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Austria Lustenau(home) | 2-1 | Bundesliga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Lask Linz(away) | 0-3 | Bundesliga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Fach-Donaufeld(away) | 4-0 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Sturm Graz win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Grazer AK win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | Sturm Graz 2-1 Grazer AK | Bundesliga |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Grazer AK 0-3 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Grazer AK 1-2 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Sturm Graz 5-2 Grazer AK | Bundesliga |
| Nov 2, 2023 | Grazer AK 2-3 Sturm Graz | Cup |
| Oct 19, 2022 | Grazer AK 0-1 Sturm Graz | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK on Dec 7, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Sturm Graz score 2.2 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Grazer AK score 1.4 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 2.2 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Grazer AK | 1.4 | 2.0 | 4 | 5/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sturm Graz sit 3rd in Bundesliga (8 points from 4 matches) and Grazer AK sit 11th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Grazer AK | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?
- The Footlab model makes Sturm Graz the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Grazer AK.
- Where and when is Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK played?
- Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK is played on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Merkur Arena, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.