Greifswalder FC vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt: prediction and stats
Regionalliga - NordostNordost - 14Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Volksstadion Greifswald, Greifswald
The Footlab model makes FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Greifswalder FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Greifswalder FC vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt?
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt starts as the favourite with a 114-point Elo edge (2,021 vs 1,907).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Greifswalder FC have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | SV Babelsberg 03(home) | 2-1 | Regionalliga - Nordost |
| Aug 15, 2026 | BFC Preussen(away) | 1-1 | Regionalliga - Nordost |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Altglienicke(home) | 1-3 | Regionalliga - Nordost |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Hertha BSC II(away) | 4-1 | Regionalliga - Nordost |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FSV Zwickau(away) | 3-0 | Regionalliga - Nordost |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Luckenwalde(away) | 5-0 | Regionalliga - Nordost |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Magdeburg II(home) | 4-1 | Regionalliga - Nordost |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Carl Zeiss Jena(away) | 2-1 | Regionalliga - Nordost |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Tasmania Berlin(home) | 6-0 | Regionalliga - Nordost |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Hallescher FC(away) | 1-1 | Regionalliga - Nordost |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Greifswalder FC win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | Greifswalder FC 1-2 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | Regionalliga - Nordost |
| Aug 10, 2025 | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 3-2 Greifswalder FC | Regionalliga - Nordost |
| Apr 12, 2025 | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 2-0 Greifswalder FC | Regionalliga - Nordost |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Greifswalder FC 1-2 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | Regionalliga - Nordost |
| Mar 28, 2024 | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 1-1 Greifswalder FC | Regionalliga - Nordost |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Greifswalder FC 1-1 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | Regionalliga - Nordost |
Last archived meeting: Greifswalder FC vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt on Mar 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Greifswalder FC score 2.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt score 2.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greifswalder FC | 2.5 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | 2.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Greifswalder FC sit 8th in Regionalliga - Nordost (8 points from 5 matches) and FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt sit 1st (16 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 4 | 16 |
| 8 | Greifswalder FC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Greifswalder FC vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt?
- The Footlab model makes FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Greifswalder FC.
- Where and when is Greifswalder FC vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt played?
- Greifswalder FC vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt is played on October 25, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Volksstadion Greifswald, in the Regionalliga - Nordost.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 25, 2026FSV ZwickauvsErzgebirge Aue
- Oct 25, 2026Hallescher FCvsLokomotive Leipzig
- Oct 25, 2026FC Carl Zeiss JenavsBFC Dynamo
- Oct 25, 2026Chemnitzer FCvsMagdeburg II
- Oct 25, 2026SV Babelsberg 03vsBFC Preussen
- Oct 25, 2026BSG Chemie LeipzigvsHertha BSC II
- Oct 25, 2026AltglienickevsLuckenwalde
- Oct 25, 2026RSV EintrachtvsTasmania Berlin