Gresford Athletic vs Porthmadog: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipNorth - 11Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)The Rock, Rhosymedre
The Footlab model makes Porthmadog the favourite at 55%, against 21% for a draw and 23% for Gresford Athletic. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gresford Athletic vs Porthmadog?
A very open match: only 19 Elo points separate Gresford Athletic (1,487) and Porthmadog (1,506).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gresford Athletic have 4 wins, 0 draws and 11 defeats; Porthmadog have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bala Town(away) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Brickfield Rangers(home) | 0-5 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Caersws(away) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Newtown AFC(home) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Guilsfield(away) | 0-4 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Denbigh Town(away) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Buckley Town(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rhyl(home) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Penrhyncoch(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Rhyl(home) | 1-2 | Welsh Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Gresford Athletic win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Porthmadog win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2024 | Porthmadog 0-1 Gresford Athletic | FAW Championship |
| Sep 9, 2023 | Gresford Athletic 2-3 Porthmadog | FAW Championship |
| Apr 7, 2023 | Gresford Athletic 3-1 Porthmadog | FAW Championship |
| Aug 2, 2022 | Porthmadog 0-1 Gresford Athletic | FAW Championship |
| Feb 1, 2020 | Gresford Athletic 7-1 Porthmadog | FAW Championship |
| Nov 9, 2019 | Porthmadog 4-1 Gresford Athletic | Welsh Cup |
Last archived meeting: Porthmadog vs Gresford Athletic on Mar 2, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Gresford Athletic score 1.1 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Porthmadog score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gresford Athletic | 1.1 | 2.5 | 3 | 5/15 | 11/15 |
| Porthmadog | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gresford Athletic sit 16th in FAW Championship (0 points from 4 matches) and Porthmadog sit 2nd (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Porthmadog | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 16 | Gresford Athletic | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gresford Athletic vs Porthmadog?
- The Footlab model makes Porthmadog the favourite at 55%, against 21% for a draw and 23% for Gresford Athletic.
- Where and when is Gresford Athletic vs Porthmadog played?
- Gresford Athletic vs Porthmadog is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at The Rock, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.