Caersws vs Porthmadog: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipNorth - 17Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The Recreation Ground, Caersws, Powys
The Footlab AI model makes Caersws the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Porthmadog. The most likely score is 1-1. If Caersws wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,479 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caersws vs Porthmadog?
A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Caersws (1,680) and Porthmadog (1,599).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Caersws vs Porthmadog
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Caersws
Not enough data to predict the Caersws lineup.
Porthmadog
4-3-3- CCai Llywelyn Jones
- SS. Cavanagh
- II. Price
- DDaniel Paul Brookwell
- CC. Evans
- GGruffydd Ellis
- JJosh Banks
- MMorgan Rhys Wyn Owen
- NNathan Williams
- II. Havelock
- AA. Ward-Jones
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 02:45 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caersws have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Porthmadog have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Holyhead Hotspur(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Bala Town(home) | 3-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Llanuwchllyn(away) | 5-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Brickfield Rangers(home) | 0-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Ruthin Town(away) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Gresford Athletic(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Bangor City 1876 FC(home) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Newtown AFC(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Ruthin Town(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Bala Town(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Caersws win, 1 draw, 2 Porthmadog wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | Porthmadog 1-3 Caersws | FAW Championship |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Caersws 1-2 Porthmadog | FAW Championship |
| Nov 18, 2023 | Porthmadog 1-1 Caersws | FAW Championship |
| Oct 1, 2016 | Porthmadog 4-0 Caersws | Welsh Cup |
Last archived meeting: Porthmadog vs Caersws on Aug 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Caersws score 2.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Porthmadog score 1.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caersws | 2.3 | 1.5 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Porthmadog | 1.6 | 1.1 | 6 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caersws sit 6th in FAW Championship (18 points from 10 matches) and Porthmadog sit 3rd (23 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Porthmadog | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 23 |
| 6 | Caersws | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 15 | 18 |
A question about Caersws vs Porthmadog?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caersws vs Porthmadog?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caersws the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Porthmadog.
- Where and when is Caersws vs Porthmadog played?
- Caersws vs Porthmadog is played on December 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The Recreation Ground, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.