Holyhead Hotspur vs Caersws: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipNorth - 11Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)The New Oval, Holyhead, Isle of Anglesey
The Footlab model makes Holyhead Hotspur the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Caersws. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Holyhead Hotspur vs Caersws?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Holyhead Hotspur (1,529) and Caersws (1,585).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Holyhead Hotspur have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Caersws have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bangor 1876(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mold Alexandra(away) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Brickfield Rangers(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ruthin Town(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Buckley Town(home) | 5-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rhyl(away) | 2-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gresford Athletic(home) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Mold Alexandra(away) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Denbigh Town(home) | 6-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Buckley Town(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Holyhead Hotspur win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Caersws win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Caersws 2-2 Holyhead Hotspur | FAW Championship |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Holyhead Hotspur 1-1 Caersws | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Caersws vs Holyhead Hotspur on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Holyhead Hotspur score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Caersws score 1.7 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holyhead Hotspur | 1.5 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Caersws | 1.7 | 1.6 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Holyhead Hotspur sit 13th in FAW Championship (3 points from 4 matches) and Caersws sit 10th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Caersws | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 13 | Holyhead Hotspur | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Holyhead Hotspur vs Caersws?
- The Footlab model makes Holyhead Hotspur the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Caersws.
- Where and when is Holyhead Hotspur vs Caersws played?
- Holyhead Hotspur vs Caersws is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at The New Oval, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.