Gretna 2008 vs Johnstone Burgh: prediction and stats
Football League - Lowland LeagueRegular SeasonKick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Raydale Park, Gretna
The Footlab model makes Johnstone Burgh the favourite at 53%, against 20% for a draw and 26% for Gretna 2008. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gretna 2008 vs Johnstone Burgh?
Johnstone Burgh starts as the favourite with a 223-point Elo edge (1,591 vs 1,368).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gretna 2008 have 2 wins, 2 draws and 11 defeats; Johnstone Burgh have 2, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Clydebank(away) | 1-7 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cumbernauld Colts(home) | 3-3 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kilwinning Rangers(home) | 1-5 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Troon FC(away) | 1-4 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Newton Stewart(home) | 3-0 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Pollok(away) | 1-3 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Albion Rovers(home) | 2-2 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Celtic II(away) | 1-1 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Troon FC(home) | 2-0 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Elgin City(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Gretna 2008 score 1.3 and concede 3.3 goals per match over their last 15; Johnstone Burgh score 1.6 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 77% probability of over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gretna 2008 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 1 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Johnstone Burgh | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2 | 5/8 | 5/8 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gretna 2008 sit 25th in Football League - Lowland League (4 points from 6 matches) and Johnstone Burgh sit 20th (5 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Johnstone Burgh | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| 25 | Gretna 2008 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gretna 2008 vs Johnstone Burgh?
- The Footlab model makes Johnstone Burgh the favourite at 53%, against 20% for a draw and 26% for Gretna 2008.
- Where and when is Gretna 2008 vs Johnstone Burgh played?
- Gretna 2008 vs Johnstone Burgh is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Raydale Park, in the Football League - Lowland League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 77% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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