Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 36Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Grobiņas stadionā, Grobiņa
The Footlab model makes FK Liepaja the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Grobiņa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja?
FK Liepaja starts as the favourite with a 180-point Elo edge (1,678 vs 1,497).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Grobiņa have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; FK Liepaja have 7, 0 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | FK Liepaja(away) | 1-3 | Virsliga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Auda(away) | 2-3 | Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Rīgas FS(away) | 1-6 | Virsliga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Riga(away) | 0-4 | Virsliga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 2-2 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Auda(away) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 3-1 | Virsliga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Super Nova(away) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Tukums(away) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Austria Vienna(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Grobiņa win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 FK Liepaja win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | FK Liepaja 3-1 Grobiņa | Virsliga |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Grobiņa 1-0 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| Apr 28, 2026 | FK Liepaja 1-1 Grobiņa | Virsliga |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Grobiņa 0-1 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| Jun 30, 2025 | FK Liepaja 2-0 Grobiņa | Virsliga |
| May 10, 2025 | Grobiņa 2-0 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
Last archived meeting: FK Liepaja vs Grobiņa on Aug 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Grobiņa score 0.8 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; FK Liepaja score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grobiņa | 0.8 | 2.1 | 2 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| FK Liepaja | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Grobiņa sit 8th in Virsliga (21 points from 27 matches) and FK Liepaja sit 5th (37 points from 27 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | FK Liepaja | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 36 | 39 | 37 |
| 8 | Grobiņa | 27 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 19 | 50 | 21 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja?
- The Footlab model makes FK Liepaja the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Grobiņa.
- Where and when is Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja played?
- Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja is played on November 8, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Grobiņas stadionā, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.