Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 36Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Slokas Stadiona
The Footlab model makes BFC Daugavpils the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Super Nova. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils?
A very open match: only 91 Elo points separate Super Nova (1,553) and BFC Daugavpils (1,645).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Super Nova have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; BFC Daugavpils have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(home) | 0-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Rīgas FS(home) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FK Liepaja(home) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 2-0 | Virsliga |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Super Nova(away) | 0-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 3-1 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tukums(home) | 2-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FS Jelgava(home) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Auda(away) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Super Nova win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 BFC Daugavpils win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Super Nova 0-0 BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| Jun 16, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils 0-0 Super Nova | Virsliga |
| Apr 27, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils 0-1 Super Nova | Virsliga |
| Oct 25, 2025 | BFC Daugavpils 2-2 Super Nova | Virsliga |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Super Nova 1-1 BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| Jun 1, 2025 | Super Nova 4-1 BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
Last archived meeting: Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils on Aug 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Super Nova score 1.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; BFC Daugavpils score 1.4 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Nova | 1.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| BFC Daugavpils | 1.4 | 0.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Super Nova sit 6th in Virsliga (28 points from 25 matches) and BFC Daugavpils sit 4th (37 points from 27 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | BFC Daugavpils | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 31 | 37 |
| 6 | Super Nova | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 26 | 37 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils?
- The Footlab model makes BFC Daugavpils the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Super Nova.
- Where and when is Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils played?
- Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils is played on November 8, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Slokas Stadiona, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.