Tukums vs Auda: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 36Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Tukuma mākslīgā laukumā stadions, Tukums
The Footlab model makes Auda the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Tukums. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tukums vs Auda?
Auda starts as the favourite with a 267-point Elo edge (1,774 vs 1,507).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tukums have 2 wins, 2 draws and 11 defeats; Auda have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Auda(away) | 0-3 | Virsliga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(away) | 0-2 | Virsliga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FK Liepaja(home) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Rīgas FS(home) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Riga(away) | 1-3 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tukums(home) | 3-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 3-2 | Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Dinamo Tirana(away) | 0-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FS Jelgava(away) | 1-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Dinamo Tirana(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Tukums win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Auda win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Auda 3-0 Tukums | Virsliga |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Tukums 2-1 Auda | Virsliga |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Auda 2-1 Tukums | Virsliga |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Auda 0-1 Tukums | Virsliga |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Tukums 1-0 Auda | Virsliga |
| Jun 13, 2025 | Tukums 2-4 Auda | Virsliga |
How many goals should we expect?
Tukums score 1.1 and concede 2.4 goals per match over their last 15; Auda score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tukums | 1.1 | 2.4 | 0 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Auda | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tukums sit 9th in Virsliga (20 points from 27 matches) and Auda sit 3rd (49 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Auda | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 26 | 49 |
| 9 | Tukums | 27 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 40 | 54 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tukums vs Auda?
- The Footlab model makes Auda the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Tukums.
- Where and when is Tukums vs Auda played?
- Tukums vs Auda is played on November 8, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Tukuma mākslīgā laukumā stadions, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.