Groene Ster vs UNA: prediction and stats
Derde DivisieRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Sportpark Pronsenbroek, Heerlen
The Footlab model makes UNA the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Groene Ster. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Groene Ster vs UNA?
A very open match: only 84 Elo points separate Groene Ster (1,587) and UNA (1,671).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Groene Ster have 4 wins, 0 draws and 11 defeats; UNA have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Excelsior Maassluis(away) | 1-3 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Roosendaal(home) | 1-3 | Derde Divisie |
| May 23, 2026 | ASWH(home) | 3-1 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| May 16, 2026 | TOGB(away) | 1-5 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| May 9, 2026 | Kloetinge(home) | 1-2 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Zwaluwen(away) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | TOGB(home) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Jun 30, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Meerssen(home) | 1-2 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| May 16, 2026 | UDI '19(away) | 3-1 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Groene Ster win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 UNA win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Groene Ster 0-4 UNA | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Oct 5, 2025 | UNA 2-0 Groene Ster | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Mar 24, 2024 | Groene Ster 3-1 UNA | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Oct 15, 2023 | UNA 1-0 Groene Ster | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| May 14, 2023 | UNA 0-4 Groene Ster | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Nov 20, 2022 | Groene Ster 1-1 UNA | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
How many goals should we expect?
Groene Ster score 1.2 and concede 2.6 goals per match over their last 15; UNA score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groene Ster | 1.2 | 2.6 | 1 | 10/15 | 14/15 |
| UNA | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Groene Ster sit 17th in Derde Divisie (0 points from 2 matches) and UNA sit 11th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | UNA | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 17 | Groene Ster | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Groene Ster vs UNA?
- The Footlab model makes UNA the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Groene Ster.
- Where and when is Groene Ster vs UNA played?
- Groene Ster vs UNA is played on October 25, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Pronsenbroek, in the Derde Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.