Groene Ster vs Noordwijk: prediction and stats
Derde DivisieRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark Pronsenbroek, Heerlen
The Footlab model makes Noordwijk the favourite at 56%, against 21% for a draw and 22% for Groene Ster. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Groene Ster vs Noordwijk?
Noordwijk starts as the favourite with a 210-point Elo edge (1,797 vs 1,587).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Groene Ster have 4 wins, 0 draws and 11 defeats; Noordwijk have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Excelsior Maassluis(away) | 1-3 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Roosendaal(home) | 1-3 | Derde Divisie |
| May 23, 2026 | ASWH(home) | 3-1 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| May 16, 2026 | TOGB(away) | 1-5 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| May 9, 2026 | Kloetinge(home) | 1-2 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Achilles Veen(away) | 4-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Blauw Geel(home) | 2-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | De Treffers(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | TOGB(home) | 1-2 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| May 16, 2026 | Kloetinge(away) | 2-2 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Groene Ster win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Noordwijk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Groene Ster 4-2 Noordwijk | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Noordwijk 1-3 Groene Ster | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
Last archived meeting: Groene Ster vs Noordwijk on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Groene Ster score 1.2 and concede 2.6 goals per match over their last 15; Noordwijk score 2.2 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groene Ster | 1.2 | 2.6 | 1 | 10/15 | 14/15 |
| Noordwijk | 2.2 | 1.6 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Groene Ster sit 17th in Derde Divisie (0 points from 2 matches) and Noordwijk sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Noordwijk | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 17 | Groene Ster | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Groene Ster vs Noordwijk?
- The Footlab model makes Noordwijk the favourite at 56%, against 21% for a draw and 22% for Groene Ster.
- Where and when is Groene Ster vs Noordwijk played?
- Groene Ster vs Noordwijk is played on December 5, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Pronsenbroek, in the Derde Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.