Groene Ster vs Noordwijk: prediction and stats
Derde DivisieRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark Pronsenbroek, Heerlen
The Footlab AI model makes Noordwijk the favourite at 82%, against 12% for a draw and 6% for Groene Ster. The most likely score is 0-3.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,987 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 22, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Groene Ster vs Noordwijk?
Noordwijk starts as the favourite with a 277-point Elo edge (1,889 vs 1,612).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Groene Ster vs Noordwijk
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Groene Ster
4-3-3- 9Bjorn Stassen
- 21L. Golsteijn
- 11S. Ahidar
- 27M. Germonprez
- 18T. Hajjaji
- 8B. Simons
- 17D. Stassar
- 23D. Zwartjes
- 2J. de Kleijn
- 10C. Ghijsen
- 1M. Voss
Noordwijk
4-3-3- 31E. Wendt
- 11V. Tjin-Asjoe
- 18R. Marbus
- 3D. Reinders
- 8B. Franken
- 19D. Bakker
- 37K. Groot
- 20Neto
- 5J. Strooker
- 22T. Zethof
- 44J. Roggeveen
Computed on October 22, 2026 at 06:23 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Groene Ster have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Noordwijk have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Dongen(away) | 0-3 | Derde Divisie |
| Oct 11, 2026 | GOES(home) | 2-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Rijnvogels(away) | 1-5 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Gemert(home) | 1-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 22, 2026 | AFC Amsterdam(home) | 1-6 | KNVB Beker |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Rijnvogels(away) | 3-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Gemert(home) | 4-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Oct 3, 2026 | EVV(away) | 2-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Zwaluwen(home) | 1-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Frisia(home) | 1-0 | KNVB Beker |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Groene Ster wins, 0 draws, 0 Noordwijk wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Groene Ster 4-2 Noordwijk | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Noordwijk 1-3 Groene Ster | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
Last archived meeting: Groene Ster vs Noordwijk on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Groene Ster score 1.5 and concede 2.6 goals per match over their last 15; Noordwijk score 1.9 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 74% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groene Ster | 1.5 | 2.6 | 1 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
| Noordwijk | 1.9 | 0.6 | 11 | 4/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Groene Ster sit 14th in Derde Divisie (9 points from 10 matches) and Noordwijk sit 1st (25 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Noordwijk | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 25 |
| 14 | Groene Ster | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 24 | 9 |
A question about Groene Ster vs Noordwijk?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Groene Ster vs Noordwijk?
- The Footlab AI model makes Noordwijk the favourite at 82%, against 12% for a draw and 6% for Groene Ster.
- Where and when is Groene Ster vs Noordwijk played?
- Groene Ster vs Noordwijk is played on December 5, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Pronsenbroek, in the Derde Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 74% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.