Guarabira vs Spartax: prediction and stats
Paraibano 2Regular Season - 7Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Sílvio Porto, Guarabira, Paraíba
The Footlab model makes Guarabira the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 17% for Spartax. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guarabira vs Spartax?
A very open match: only 62 Elo points separate Guarabira (1,607) and Spartax (1,545).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guarabira have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Spartax have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2025 | Atlético Cajazeirense(away) | 2-2 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Atlético Cajazeirense(home) | 2-2 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 25, 2025 | Miramar(away) | 4-1 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Cruzeiro PB(away) | 1-2 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Confianca PB(home) | 0-0 | Paraibano 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2025 | Serrano PB(away) | 1-5 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Sabugy(home) | 3-1 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | São Paulo Crystal(home) | 0-3 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 11, 2025 | Cruzeiro PB(away) | 0-2 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 8, 2025 | Queimadense(home) | 4-2 | Paraibano 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Guarabira win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Spartax win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2025 | Guarabira 2-2 Spartax | Paraibano 2 |
| Aug 29, 2024 | Guarabira 0-0 Spartax | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 14, 2023 | Guarabira 2-3 Spartax | Paraibano 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Guarabira score 1.6 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Spartax score 1.5 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guarabira | 1.6 | 1.5 | 4 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Spartax | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guarabira vs Spartax?
- The Footlab model makes Guarabira the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 17% for Spartax.
- Where and when is Guarabira vs Spartax played?
- Guarabira vs Spartax is played on October 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Sílvio Porto, in the Paraibano 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.