Guarda vs Estrela: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group BGroup B - 24Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal da Guarda, Guarda
The Footlab AI model makes Estrela the favourite at 47%, against 29% for a draw and 24% for Guarda. The most likely score is 1-1. If Estrela wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,384 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guarda vs Estrela?
Estrela starts as the favourite with a 196-point Elo edge (2,051 vs 1,855).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Guarda vs Estrela
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Guarda
4-3-3- DDeivison
- SSérgio Assis Capitango Fernando Santos
- 22Daniel Semedo
- 83Tiago Luís
- TT. Nang
- IIsnaba Ioncana
- HHugo Alexandre Bulak Gavino
- 21Rogério Fernandes
- GG. Benjumea
- RRafael Tavares
- 99Ricardo Jorge Oliveira Morais
Estrela
4-2-3-1- 37L. Antonetti
- 10I. Stoica
- 99A. Marcus
- 14L. Zvonarek
- 39Eddy Doue
- 78Santiago Serra
- 55Rafa Soares
- 21M. Scholze
- 5S. Leković
- 4Bernardo Schappo
- 24Léo Linck
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 01:49 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guarda have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Estrela have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Sanjoanense(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Chaves(home) | 2-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Camacha(home) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 6, 2026 | União Lamas(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Académico do Fundão(away) | 6-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Arouca(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 3-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Guarda score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Estrela score 1.7 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guarda | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Estrela | 1.7 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Guarda | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
A question about Guarda vs Estrela?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guarda vs Estrela?
- The Footlab AI model makes Estrela the favourite at 47%, against 29% for a draw and 24% for Guarda.
- Where and when is Guarda vs Estrela played?
- Guarda vs Estrela is played on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal da Guarda, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.