Machico vs Castro Daire: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group BGroup B - 24Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Machico, Machico (Madeira)
The Footlab model makes Machico the favourite at 45%, against 30% for a draw and 25% for Castro Daire. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Machico vs Castro Daire?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Machico (1,803) and Castro Daire (1,752).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Machico have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Castro Daire have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Beira-Mar(away) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Ribeira Brava(home) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Celoricense(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Vilaverdense(home) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sousense(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ovarense(home) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Anadia(home) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Apr 16, 2023 | Leça(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 8, 2023 | Resende(home) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Machico win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Castro Daire win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2023 | Castro Daire 0-1 Machico | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 18, 2022 | Machico 2-2 Castro Daire | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
Last archived meeting: Castro Daire vs Machico on Jan 15, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Machico score 1.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Castro Daire score 0.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machico | 1.1 | 0.7 | 10 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Castro Daire | 0.9 | 1.4 | 3 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Machico sit 2nd in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B (4 points from 2 matches) and Castro Daire sit 7th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Machico | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Castro Daire | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Machico vs Castro Daire?
- The Footlab model makes Machico the favourite at 45%, against 30% for a draw and 25% for Castro Daire.
- Where and when is Machico vs Castro Daire played?
- Machico vs Castro Daire is played on April 4, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Machico, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.