Guingamp vs Metz: prediction and stats
Ligue 2Regular Season - 32Kick-off on May 7, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Stade du Roudourou, Guingamp
The Footlab model makes Metz the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Guingamp. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guingamp vs Metz?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Guingamp (1,784) and Metz (1,833).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guingamp have 2 wins, 2 draws and 11 defeats; Metz have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Sochaux(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Boulogne(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Metz(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Lorient(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Laval(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Grenoble(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Guingamp(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Guingamp win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Metz win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Metz 2-1 Guingamp | Ligue 2 |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Guingamp 0-3 Metz | Ligue 2 |
| Oct 25, 2024 | Metz 1-0 Guingamp | Ligue 2 |
| May 20, 2023 | Guingamp 1-1 Metz | Ligue 2 |
| Sep 12, 2022 | Metz 3-6 Guingamp | Ligue 2 |
| Feb 24, 2018 | Guingamp 2-2 Metz | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Guingamp score 0.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Metz score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Metz | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guingamp sit 11th in Ligue 2 (3 points from 3 matches) and Metz sit 5th (5 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Metz | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 11 | Guingamp | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guingamp vs Metz?
- The Footlab model makes Metz the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Guingamp.
- Where and when is Guingamp vs Metz played?
- Guingamp vs Metz is played on May 7, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Stade du Roudourou, in the Ligue 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.