Gwangju FC vs FC Seoul: prediction and stats
K League 1Regular Season - 26Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 10:30 AM (UTC)Gwangju Football Stadium, Gwangju
The Footlab model makes FC Seoul the favourite at 76%, against 17% for a draw and 7% for Gwangju FC. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gwangju FC vs FC Seoul?
FC Seoul starts as the favourite with a 216-point Elo edge (1,855 vs 1,639).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gwangju FC have 2 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats; FC Seoul have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Incheon United(home) | 0-1 | K League 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Ulsan Citizen(away) | 1-0 | FA Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pohang Steelers(home) | 1-2 | K League 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bucheon FC 1995(away) | 0-0 | K League 1 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Daejeon Citizen(away) | 0-2 | K League 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Anyang(away) | 7-0 | K League 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Daejeon Citizen(home) | 4-2 | K League 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC(away) | 0-0 | K League 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Jeonbuk Motors(away) | 0-0 | K League 1 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Busan I Park(away) | 0-2 | FA Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Gwangju FC win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 FC Seoul win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Gwangju FC 0-1 FC Seoul | K League 1 |
| Mar 22, 2026 | FC Seoul 5-0 Gwangju FC | K League 1 |
| Sep 21, 2025 | FC Seoul 3-0 Gwangju FC | K League 1 |
| Jun 13, 2025 | Gwangju FC 1-3 FC Seoul | K League 1 |
| Apr 19, 2025 | FC Seoul 1-2 Gwangju FC | K League 1 |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Gwangju FC 3-1 FC Seoul | K League 1 |
Last archived meeting: Gwangju FC vs FC Seoul on May 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gwangju FC score 0.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; FC Seoul score 1.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gwangju FC | 0.5 | 1.5 | 4 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| FC Seoul | 1.7 | 1.0 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gwangju FC sit 12th in K League 1 (11 points from 24 matches) and FC Seoul sit 1st (50 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 24 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 46 | 19 | 50 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 24 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 12 | 50 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gwangju FC vs FC Seoul?
- The Footlab model makes FC Seoul the favourite at 76%, against 17% for a draw and 7% for Gwangju FC.
- Where and when is Gwangju FC vs FC Seoul played?
- Gwangju FC vs FC Seoul is played on August 30, 2026 at 10:30 AM (UTC) at Gwangju Football Stadium, in the K League 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.